Bloodbath or Reconciliation. Whose Wish Will Be Granted?

By Joey Salgado

In the wake of the humiliating performance of his administration coalition in the midterm elections, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is personally leading a high-profile media offensive to tilt the national conversation in his favor.

On Thursday, the President asked for the courtesy resignations of his Cabinet members, a move described by the Palace as a “bold reset” but seen largely as a symbolic act of contrition.

“It is time to realign government with people’s expectation,” the President said in a statement. It’s a puzzling declaration to make for a leader who has been in office for three years.

The presidency is all about meeting and even exceeding people’s expectations. And expectations have always been high for the President given his pedigree and controversial family history, and his campaign promise to improve the lives of Filipinos.

Thirty one million voted him into office, but by the second year, public satisfaction began to decline. In March, with the campaign period in full swing, his approval rating was down to 25 per cent. A whopping 53 per cent disapproved of his performance.

No one told the President that performance is always the best politics.

His mandate to lead has been squandered by his administration’s lethargic response to high food prices, and rising poverty and hunger. But the President does not see it that way.

The President as podcaster

In a podcast days before the Cabinet pogrom, the President, puffy eyelids barely concealed by designer glasses, conducted his own post-mortem of the disappointing midterm results.

If the intention was to show a President confident and in control, determined to shake things up, the podcast came up short. The President looked tired and dejected. Since he is not conversant in Pilipino, he constantly grasped for words. He is not a communicator in the mold of his late father, and it showed in his off the cuff statements.

Two things, however, were evident.

For the President, the coalition’s poor midterm performance was the result of his people’s failure to communicate and failure to perform. His extended discourse on these two shortcomings was intended to set up the Cabinet revamp.

Reconciliation?

Media, however, focused on a single word: reconciliation.

Asked if he was still open to reconciling with the Dutertes, the President said yes. At this stage of his presidency, he does not want more enemies, he wants friends. “Ako, ayaw ko ng gulo,” he said.

It was clearly a message to his estranged Vice President, Sara Duterte. Formerly dismissed as politically comatose, she has been resurrected by the arrest and detention of her father, former president Rodrigo Duterte. In contrast to the President’s low numbers, she registered an approval rating of 59 per cent in March, with only 16 per cent disapproval.

Despite her impeachment by the House - blamed by the administration campaign manager for the midterm debacle - Duterte remains the frontrunner in the 2028 presidential election. She has yet to comment on the President’s statement, but based on her previous actions, it’s a no or a conditional yes, with no guarantees. Forgiveness and showing mercy to political enemies is not in the Duterte genes.

Be careful what you wish for

With her impeachment trial at the Senate set to start in July, the Vice President had said she is leaving the matter to her defense lawyers. Her only wish is for a bloodbath.

A metaphorical bloodbath appears certain.

No sitting president or vice president has been convicted in an impeachment trial since the founding of the Republic, but that will not stop the House impeachment team from pressing their case.

More than the evidence and legal arguments, the trial will be a battle of narratives and optics, an opportunity to remind the public of the Vice President’s alleged financial indiscretions and question her fitness to lead.

For most observers, the midterm results has weakened the administration’s hand in the Senate.

But political and business interests of the individual senator-judges could open pressure points for a family determined to survive and thrive.

It’s going to be bloody and painful for the Vice President, just as she wishes.  She could be acquitted, but she will also be bloodied, weakened, and damaged in the public eye, enough reason for voters to look elsewhere for salvation in 2028.

This article also appears in Rappler