Fourth Quarter 2021 Social Weather Survey: 93% of Filipinos enter New Year with Hope

by Social Weather Stations

The national Social Weather Survey December 12-16, 2021, found 93% of adult Filipinos entering the New Year with hope rather than with fear.

The difference from the 91% recorded in 2020 is not statistically significant, but both readings are below the pre-Covid-19 96% in 2019 [Chart 1, Table 1].

On the other hand, 7% will enter the New Year with fear, unchanged from 2020.

Hope for the New Year started at 87% when SWS first asked the question at the end of 2000. It was in the 90s at the end of 2002, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2010 to 2021. It was in the 80s at the end of 2000, 2001, 2004, 2005, and 2009.

98% of those expecting a happy Christmas are entering the New Year with Hope

The December 2021 survey found that 65% of adult Filipinos expected Christmas to be happy (masaya), 8% expected it to be sad (malungkot), and 22% expected it to be neither happy nor sad (“Fourth Quarter 2021 Social Weather Survey: 65% of adult Filipinos expect a happy Christmas,” 24 December 2021, www.sws.org.ph).

The percentage of those who are entering the New Year with hope rather than fear is higher among those who expected a happy Christmas (98%) than those who expected neither a happy nor sad Christmas (90%) and those who expected a sad Christmas (88%) [Chart 2].

Hope for the coming New Year has always been higher among those who expected a happy Christmas than those who expected a sad Christmas.

Hope for the New Year rises in all areas except Mindanao

Compared to the end of 2020, hope for the coming New Year rose in Metro Manila (from 90% to 95%), Balance Luzon (from 92% to 93%), and the Visayas (from 88% to 90%) [Chart 3, Table 2].

It stayed at 93% in Mindanao.

Hope for the New Year rises in all educational groups except non-elementary graduates

Compared to the end of 2020, New Year hope rose among elementary graduates (from 89% to 90%), among junior high school graduates (from 92% to 94%), and among college graduates (from 94% to 98%) [Chart 4].

It declined slightly from 91% to 89% among non-elementary graduates.

Survey background

The Fourth Quarter 2021 Social Weather Survey was conducted from December 12-16, 2021, using face-to-face interviews of 1,440 adults (18 years old and above) nationwide: 360 each in Balance Luzon, Metro Manila, the Visayas, and Mindanao. Face-to-face is the standard interviewing method for Social Weather Stations; the only exceptions were early in the pandemic when movement restrictions made face-to-face impossible and mobile phone interviews were conducted. Normal face-to-face field operations resumed in November 2020. The sampling error margins are ±2.6% for national percentages, and ±5.2% for Balance Luzon, Metro Manila, the Visayas, and Mindanao.

The area estimates were weighted by the Philippine Statistics Authority medium-population projections for 2021 to obtain the national estimates.

The survey items reported here are non-commissioned. They are included on SWS’s initiative and released as a public service.

The exact phrasing of the survey questions (the source language is Filipino; English translation included) was:

“Ang darating na taon ba ay inyong sasalubungin nang may pag-asa o may pangamba? (SASALUBUNGIN ANG DARATING NA TAON NANG MAY PAG-ASA; SASALUBUNGIN ANG DARATING NA TAON NANG MAY PANGAMBA) [Is it with hopes or with fears that you enter the coming year? (ENTER THE COMING YEAR WITH HOPE; ENTER THE COMING YEAR WITH FEAR)].”

This question was patterned after the polls conducted annually since 1991 by the Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach (www.ifd-allensbach.de), a pioneer opinion research institute in Europe.

SWS employs its own staff for questionnaire design, sampling, fieldwork, data processing, and analysis, and does not outsource any of its survey operations. This report was prepared by Leo S. Laroza.

Chart 1