SONA 2026: No Political Capital, No Legacy?

By Joey Salgado

Contrast the man on the podium with the man four years ago: no longer basking in the sunshine of a resounding mandate, no longer exuding reflected gravitas from his late father and namesake. The camera followed the President as he made his long ceremonial walk to the plenary hall looking tired, a man lost in thought. He did not project confidence. He took the podium and looked at the assembled legislators and guests with the face of someone attending his own wake.

The President went straight to the subject that has swallowed his presidency whole: flood control corruption. We have done everything to pinpoint where it started, he declared, and what needed to be done, however painful, needed to be done. He then announced that the Ombudsman is set to file cases against the former Speaker, his cousin Martin Romualdez, whom he oddly did not mention by name. At one point the President’s voice seemed to break. The plenary was silent. The applause, when it came, was thin. It was only when the President said “Hindi ako Pangulo ng aking pamilya, hindi ako Pangulo ng aking kaibigan. Ako ay Pangulo ng Pilipinas, ng mga kapwa Pilipino,” - a faint echo of a disgraced former president’s inaugural speech, a pledge that history has proven to be honored in the breach - that the plenary applauded.

With the inconvenient subject out of the way and the headline assured, the President proceeded to deliver a templated SONA, running through the usual inventory of achievements and directives delivered with the enthusiasm of a man reading a grocery list.

Here is the reality check that nobody in Malacañang and Congress wants to say out loud: with two years left, the President has run out of time for the meaningful economic reforms that were supposed to be his legacy. He has no political capital left to spend, no steadfast coalition to spend it with. The country is riven by partisanship, his presidency is distrusted, and his political nemesis remains the public's clear first choice to succeed him. This is not a redemption arc anymore. It is a story quietly rewriting itself into disgrace.

Pulse Asia's July numbers make the case more starkly: 28 per cent trust, down seven points in a single quarter, with 51 per cent now saying outright they distrust him. Compare that to the landslide of 2022 and you understand why the Palace's spinners have gone quiet on “economic gains.”

The flood control scandal he himself detonated a year ago has since metastasized, no longer restricted to public works officials, contractors, and a few congressmen. It forced out his once-powerful cousin as Speaker, and tainted the Senate and the Cabinet. The economic program remains unbuilt, its centerpiece bills stuck in a Congress more invested in self-preservation than legislation.

And even if he can still summon the political will, the political environment won't allow it. We crossed the threshold when the House impeached Vice President Sara Duterte for a second time. From now on, every bill, every presidential appointment, every indictment by the Ombudsman is read for its impact on 2028. This year is the year when reform bills die not from disagreement but from neglect.

Legacies are what you build when you can afford to ignore the headlines and the social media noise. The President simply can’t. He is playing defense for his family's name, their future, and their freedom.

The President's final two years in office will be spent trying to keep Duterte out of Malacañang because he knows all too well what her presidency would mean for his family. This isn't paranoia. It's how dynasties play high-stakes politics, the politics of payback. And with the deep animosity between the Marcoses and the Dutertes following the collapse of their alliance, capped by the arrest and detention of the Duterte patriarch in The Hague, payback will be painful.

In the most recent survey, Duterte remains the preferred presidential candidate of 49 per cent of Filipinos, nearly double her nearest rival, even as the Senate tries her in a chamber where allegiances have long since hardened. If the trial fails to convict, the President will have spent his remaining capital on a lost fight, with nothing left over for the economy he promised to fix.