SWS: 60% Say President Duterte’s VP Run Violates Constitution

Second Quarter 2021 Social Weather Survey: 60% of adult Filipinos say it violates the intention of the Constitution if President Duterte runs as Vice-President in 2022; only 39% say he should run

By Social Weather Stations

The national Social Weather Survey of June 23-26, 2021, found 60% of adult Filipinos saying, “The proposal that Pres. Rodrigo Duterte should run for Vice-President in the 2022 election violates the intention of the Constitution, which should first be amended before he may run for office again,” and only 39% saying “Pres. Rodrigo Duterte should run for Vice-President in the 2022 election, because I would like his management of the government to continue.” The remaining 1% did not give an answer [Chart 1].

Majorities across basic demographics say President Duterte running in 2022 would violate the Constitution

By area, the proportion of those who say it would violate the Constitution if Pres. Duterte runs in 2022 was highest in Balance Luzon (65%), followed by the Visayas (59%), Metro Manila (56%), and Mindanao (53%) [Chart 2].

Majorities in all educational levels also share this view: 67% among non-elementary graduates, 70% among elementary graduates, 52% among junior high school graduates, and 61% among college graduates [Chart 3].

Regardless of poverty, majorities are opposed to a VP run for President Duterte

The June survey found 48% of Filipino families rating themselves as Mahirap or Poor, 23% rating themselves as Hindi Mahirap or Not Poor, and 29% placing themselves on the borderline dividing the two categories (recorded by SWS as Borderline Poor) (“Second Quarter 2021 Social Weather Survey: 48% of Filipino families feel Poor; 23% feel Not Poor, 29% feel Borderline Poor,” 25 July 2021, www.sws.org.ph)

All categories across Self-Rated Poverty have a majority opposed to a Vice-Presidential run for Pres. Duterte: the proportion with this view was highest among Not Poor (64%), followed by Borderline Poor (61%) and Poor (58%) [Chart 4].

Stronger opposition to a VP run for President Duterte among those dissatisfied with him

The June 2021 survey found 75% of adult Filipinos satisfied, 12% undecided, and 13% dissatisfied with the performance of Rodrigo R. Duterte as President (“Special report on Satisfaction Rating of the President: Pres. Duterte’s Net Satisfaction at +79 in November 2020, +65 in May 2021, and +62 in June 2021,” 24 September 2021, www.sws.org.ph).

Those who oppose a Vice-Presidential bid for President Duterte in 2022 were highest among very dissatisfied with his performance as President (88%), followed by those somewhat dissatisfied (83%), undecided (81%), somewhat satisfied (62%), and very satisfied (42%) [Chart 5].

On the other hand, those who favor a Vice-Presidential bid for Pres. Duterte in 2022 was highest among those very satisfied with his performance (58%), followed by those somewhat satisfied (38%), undecided (19%), somewhat dissatisfied (17%), and very dissatisfied (12%).

Survey background

The Second Quarter 2021 Social Weather Survey was conducted from June 23 to 26, 2021, using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults (18 years old and above) nationwide: 300 each in Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao. The sampling error margins are ±3% for national percentages and ±6% for Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao.

The area estimates were weighted by the Philippine Statistics Authority medium-population projections for 2021 to obtain the national estimates.

The SWS survey question on people’s opinion about the proposed Vice-Presidential bid for President Duterte in 2022 was non-commissioned. It was included on SWS’s initiative and released as a public service.

The exact phrasing of the question was:

May nagpapanukala na (A) dapat tumakbo si Pang. Rodrigo Duterte sa pagka Bise-Presidente sa eleksyon ng 2022, kasi nais nilang matuloy ang kanyang pamamahala sa gobyerno. Ang kabilang panig naman ay nagsasabi na (B) ang panukalang tumakbo si Pang. Rodrigo Duterte sa pagka Bise-Presidente sa eleksyon ng 2022 ay labag sa intensyon ng Konstitusyon, kaya’t dapat susugan o baguhin muna ang Konstitusyon bago siya pwedeng tumakbo uli. Alin sa dalawang panig na ito (A o B) ang mas malapit sa opinyon ninyo? (ONE ANSWER ONLY) [Some people propose (A) that Pres. Rodrigo Duterte should run for Vice-President in the 2022 election, because they would like his management of the government to continue. The other side says (B) that the proposal that Pres. Rodrigo Duterte should run for Vice-President in the 2022 election violates the intention of the Constitution, which should first be amended before he may run for office again. Which of these two sides (A or B) is closer to your opinion? (ONE ANSWER ONLY)]

SWS employs its own staff for questionnaire design, sampling, fieldwork, data processing, and analysis, and does not outsource any of its survey operations. This report was prepared by Leo S. Laroza.

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